17 Aug 12 03:25 PM , grumpy (got me vajazzle back) wrote:

the reason why i folded was all week i had been hammered flopping top pair top kicker only to be beat by flopped set. this one i managed to get away from but only cos it seems to happen to me all the time. i even managed to lose when i flopped a set

If this is your reason then its a TERRIBLE fold, variance often means that bad beats and coolers seemingly come in bunches, folding TPTK (top pair top kicker) to a min raise for this reason is not justified (especially in the Challenge Champion IMO).

If you specifically put the guy (or D) on 55 or 99 (TT is obviously less likely) then its a good fold long term via THESE players, but REALISTICALLY I don't think you can put him precisely on 55/99/TT often enuf to justify fold, as it is such a wet and drawy board. A set should 100% be more than min raising v 2 players (LONG TERM). 

I know D's game well enuf (I am sure she will disagree though! lol) and you beating a lot of her range here (hands like K 10 etc are there on flop strength but suited and/or connecting hands like QJ or 2 spaded cards are there for strength of draw). The fact D donk bet out probably points more to a made hand like 10x where she doesn't want to give free cards rather than a drawy hand which I think she would check call with more often than donk bet the flop.

So we can easily flat the flop and re-assess D and other guy's hand on turn. NOTE: the A is pretty much an irrelevant card on turn IMO.
Of all the hands I consider in this post your A 10 is either still winning or behind to a SET on flop and turn. The only exception is really 9 10 (flopped 2 paired) which you now beat.

Ozzy's action preflop can dictate a lot.

Is he really flatting the SB with 2 limpers with JJ-AA (probably not), will he flat with 55,99 and TT OOP (out of position)? YES he prob will in most cases.
Does he raise flop on straight draw/flush draw trying to represent strength or even pot control (pot controlling via min raising is a higher level understanding) and maybe that can be ruled out I don't know.

He can be min raising with hands like QsJs/Js8S/8s7s etc and if so you defo shudn't be folding as you can push him of these type of hands on the turn by giving him the wrong pot odds to call and draw. 

Its the min raise you seem to be more concerned about (and rightly so), but your flop fold is pretty bad here unless you are very sure Ozzy had a set cos I am never folding this even if I think D mite have set cos the pot odds are massive and I would get much more info on turn as to D's hand (REM we have POSITION on both). (Note "odds" doesn't mean calling to improve here it means calling to win the hand).

Don't think I know the min raiser but you gotta put him on precisely 55/99/TT to fold. With such a small raise and a fairly descent chance you can push both (maybe less so D) of flush and straight draws by betting the turn, you HAVE to call the flop.

PLUS you are going to get more info on turn and it will be easier to fold on turn on all non A or 10 turns.

Another thing to note though is you have As, so you do have backdoor NFD and you have a blocker to FD and a NUT redraw shud the spade come on turn.

SUMMARY: 4 handed v 2 other limper and BB and the board connects with a lot of their range, pot on this very drawy flop is $585 and costing you $120 with TPTK. If you think that at least 1 in 5 times that both DON'T have set it is the correct call and then reassess on the turn. As played you would have obviously went bust but you can't be results orientated.

If turn comes a blank like 2h you have position on both, if both suddenly check, that may mean weakness and you have opportunity to charge them to draw and potentially you have opportunity to push them off hands. Note a spade will generally slow down anyone with flopped trips and this would give you free spade to draw to (as long as it doesn't pair board).
The turn card and more importantly the betting actions will significantly narrow the opponents ranges for you and allow you to make the coorect play in the LONG TERM.

If the turn comes an Ace or 10 and you lose your stack it can often STILL be the right play IMO (depending on the flop action), if it comes a K Q J 7 etc or even a spade it is MUCH easier for you to fold the turn especially if opponents bet .

NOTE: this hand and the decisions on every street would be easier made had you raised pre instead of limping. Generally if you are going to enter a pot raise pre, if you are worried about the limper previous to you (D here), just remember you have position, ask yourself am I beating most of this limpers RANGE (in this case I would say yes) as JJ-AA, and AK/AQ would be generally raised by a typical limper especially with only 6 at table. AJ is maybe in between limping and raising here for a lot of people, but by raising pre you have extra info to make that judgement at a later street should it be required and you fold out a lot of hands that would connect with this board so you make your deicison easier.

Made these comments between grinding a 4-5 SnG's so hope it makes sense, if you need any of my opinions clarified just ask.