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2 months ago  ::  07 May 18 06:38 PM #31
Vaskar
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Date Joined: Oct 18, 2015
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Thanks ray. so if i want to follow bothe strategies i need a bank of 80+40= 120points or 150+40= 190 points? and what is a saver bet? and i also want to follow you on twitter as well, if you have no issue of course. Please send me your handle via DM. 
Thanks again. 
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1 month ago  ::  09 May 18 06:56 AM #32
wiggy
Posts: 10,144
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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07 May 18 12:38 PM , Vaskar wrote:

Thanks ray. so if i want to follow bothe strategies i need a bank of 80+40= 120points or 150+40= 190 points? and what is a saver bet? and i also want to follow you on twitter as well, if you have no issue of course. Please send me your handle via DM. 
Thanks again. 




You have the points total correct, a saver bet (also known as a cover bet) is a bet placed to return our stake should the main bet fail

In the football strategy we are placing 5% of our original stake on a different market to cover our stake if we can't cash out before another goal is scored (this is the saver bet) as you need to use the exchanges for this strategy (betfair etc) you will be faced with a minimum bet requirement, on Betfair this is £2 and that is 5% of £40, that means 1 point is £40 and for a 40 point bank you need £1600 which may not be realistic for some people, if this is the case you could start the football strategy without the saver bet which lowers the value of a point, but once you reach a bank total that covers the saver bet add it back in

So if you started the football strategy betting £10 and without the saver bet you would need a bank of £400

The people following me on Twitter pay a subscription for the information I provide, at the moment I don't have any places available, and I'm not using this forum for advertising looking for more followers, if anybody drops out in the future I'll let you know, but at the moment I have to say no as I only have limited time to deal with the questions I am asked by them, and I want to keep some time for this thread

I will start a betting thread in the horseracing section soon, but it's important to me that all advice given on this forum is FREE

 




 

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1 month ago  ::  09 May 18 07:12 AM #33
wiggy
Posts: 10,144
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
Rank: Royal Flush
                                                             Coming up

The next article will be on compounding your betting bank, this is an important part of the betting process for long term gains

Then we will look at the bet selection process and how to select the right type of horses in races, this will come with a giveaway of a spreadsheet which is already set up to calculate a runners chances in a race (normal terms will apply) and can be used with the sporting life or Racing post horseracing cards

We'll also look at Dutching and multiple bets, and there will be some lucky 15 advice as well, with the football season coming to an end we'll look at some ideas for next season, we'll also cover some other sports like Tennis, Cricket and Golf


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1 month ago  ::  12 May 18 08:09 AM #34
wiggy
Posts: 10,144
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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Compounding your betting bank


Part 1


Compounding is using the profit you make to increase the profit you can make, much like compound interest on a savings account, the more you have the more you can make Einstein called compound interest the “Eighth wonder of the world”


There are many ways to use this strategy depending on your risk acceptance and the expected outcome of your betting activity, you could take an aggressive position or you could take an ultra cautious position or maybe you prefer to find the middle ground, whatever position you chose compounding is the key to long term profit and could provide you with a second income



Let's look at a few examples starting with a bank of £1000 and £10 bets (100 points)


We could take the ultra aggressive stance of compounding after every bet, so we bet £10 and win our first bet at even money and now have £1010 and our next bet is for £10.10, so we are effectively betting 1% of our bank on each bet! But if we lose bet 1 then we have £990 and now bet £9.90 on bet 2, if you only place 1 bet a day then that's fine! But if you place more than 1 bet a day you will face an issue, you will need to know the result of your first bet to calculate the stake for bet 2, this means you will have to be able to be available to set up each bet, and you will have to keep good records of your bets to know where you are, can you do that if you work?


We could take a slightly less aggressive stance and compound daily, so let's say on day 1 we have 2 winning bets at even money and 1 losing bet, we win £20 for our 2 winning bets and lose £10 on the losing bet, our bank is now £1010 and we start day 2 betting £10.10, and if we lose all 3 bets on day 1 then we have £970 and day 2 starts at £9.70, we don't have to be online during the day now but we still need good records to keep track of our stakes


Another option is to compound weekly, so we place our bets for the whole week and only adjust our stakes up or down at the end of the week


Then there is the less aggressive stance of compounding to stakes, for this we would start with a bank of £1000 betting £10 and would only increase our stakes when we have enough to bet £11 (£1100) the one thing to keep in mind here is we never increase the percentage of our bank placed on each bet!


Of course we could take the ultra safe position of only compounding at the end of a year, every 6 months or every 3 months, so let's say we chose a year, if we average 10 points profit a month then we would win 120 points a year, so at the end of year 1 we would have our starting bank £1000 plus our profit £1200 and a total of £2200, so in year 2 we would bet £22 each bet, if we achieve the same average profit of 10 points a month at the end of year 2 we have £2200 + £2400 and a total bank of £4600, this is compounding in action


Next we'll look at the strategy I personally use


But first let's look at the examples used here, this example is an ultra cautious 1% so when our bank increases our bets increase and when it decreases our bets decrease with it, betting 1% means you can lose 100 bets in a row and still have money in your account, but if you hit a losing run of more than 25 bets you should stop what you are doing because it doesn't work! Or you need to be betting at huge prices for it to work!


As with everything we can use an aggressive or passive stance with our bet to bank percentage, 1% is very passive 10% is very aggressive, the amount we bet has to be comparable to our expected strike-rate and losing runs, if we win 1 in 5 bets it would be ridiculous to bet 10% of our bank as a losing run is going to occur that's more than 10 losers in a row and we will be wiped out, and of course there is the mindset problem we looked at before, if you do hit a long losing sequence (and you will at some point) you bank will be decreasing quickly, will you have the nerve to hang in there waiting for the winner that will move you back towards profit?

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1 month ago  ::  13 May 18 09:15 AM #35
wiggy
Posts: 10,144
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
Rank: Royal Flush

Compounding your betting bank


Part 2


In part 1 we looked at some of the options open to us! What you eventually settle on will be dictated by your level of risk acceptance, your mindset, and your patience, the options are all laid out in part 1


What we are going to look at in part 2 is my personal option, this is an option that over 5 years has allowed me to make profits that this year topped £20,000, that was after 3 years of compounding to allow me to increase stakes to a meaningful level, I do NOT promote a “get rich quick attitude” patience is the key to long term success, and having a portfolio of systems to cover the whole year


I start with a bank of £500 which I split into 50 points (£10) I increased or decreased my stakes monthly in line with my bank at this time, I felt this was neither overly aggressive or needlessly passive, when the bank grew to £1500 I withdrew my original £500 and started again from £1000 with 50 points, now I was only betting with profits, I continued to compound my stakes monthly at this point growing my bank, when I hit £2500 I again withdrew £500 and started again from £2000 with 50 points (now £40) and I continued to do this until I reached a level I was comfortable could provide a useable income which is where I am today


The example used in part 1 assumes an average of 10 points profit a month then uses this to show increases, however winning 10 points every month is unrealistic, some months we will lose some points and some months we will make more than 10 points, I know that from experience and my average is actually higher than 10 points, it's important to know that! As this is only an example using 10 points a month to show constant monthly growth, you may be decreasing stakes some months but increasing by more than the average other months


Maths time


We will start with a £500 bank split into 50 points £10 and work to an average of 10 points profit every month and we will round our points to the lowest round number, we will not re-split the bank to 100 points or withdraw before 12 months is up


So end of month 1 we have £500 + 100 profit = £600 and 50 points at £12


end of month 2 £600 + £120 profit = £720 and 50 points at £14 (14.40)


end of month 3 £720 + £140 profit = £860 and 50 points at £17 (17.20)


end of month 4 £860 + £170 profit = £1030 and 50 points at £20 (20.60)


end of month 5 £1030 + £200 profit = £1230 and 50 points at £24 (24.60)


end of month 6 £1230 + £240 profit = £1470 and 50 points at £29 (29.40)


end of month 7 £1470 + £290 profit = £1760 and 50 points at £35 (35.20)


end of month 8 £1760 + £350 profit = £2110 and 50 points at £42 (42.20)


end of month 9 £2110 + £420 profit = £2530 and 50 points at £50 (50.60)


end of month 9 £2530 + £500 profit = £3030 and 50 points at £60 (60.60)


end of month 10 £3030 + £600 profit = £3630 and 50 points at £72 (72.60)


end of month 11 £3630 + £720 profit = £4350 and 50 points at £87 (87.00)


end of month 12 £4350 + £870 profit = £5220 at end of year



It makes impressive reading but there are things to consider, at some point you may want to take your original stake out, you may want to withdraw profits in the future to protect them or treat yourself, you may want to split the bank to 100 points at some time to protect profits, and then there are the stakes and bookmakers to consider, you may decide £25 a bet is your limit meaning after month 5 you take your profits monthly (250) or you may decide to continue to £30 meaning you do this at month 6, or maybe you like nosebleed stakes and continue on anyway, bookmaker don't like winning punters! They will restrict your bets or close your accounts if you constantly win even at £25 stakes, I know this as I have lost another 2 bookmaker accounts since this thread went live, if that happens you will be forced onto the exchanges and then you have to accept a 5% commission on all of your winning bets, at least you will never be restricted but you won't get best odds guaranteed which can increase your winnings


Whatever you decide is the right choice for you compounding is the name of the game, you wont get rich quick but you will make long term useable income, and that should always be the goal

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1 month ago  ::  20 May 18 10:28 AM #36
wiggy
Posts: 10,144
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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It's time to look at how we come up with our selection system, the thought processes we can use, the way in which we can use the information we have and how we can use long term statistics to refine our selection system


This post will also start to explain what is going on in the other thread in the horse racing section


There are many ways to devise a system selection strategy, you just need to write down some ideas and then research them (more on research sites later)


It could be something like “I want to back runners from Roger Varian in novice races” from that simple idea we can add other points of interest like “only 3 year old runners” or “only runners at Windsor” or “only runners ridden by Luke Morris” it really doesn't matter what you add you just need some ideas of what you are looking for, it only has to make sense to you


Or how about “I want to back any second favourite running at Lingfield that is 3/1 or less in the betting”?


Or even “I want to back grey horses running on soft ground on a Wednesday at Ascot”


Write down a few ideas and then have a look at the historical figures, sometimes it will show you nothing at all other times you may have the makings of a system and occasionally you will create a system based on opposing what you are looking for or combining ideas from different systems, the key things to remember are don't get locked into one idea fits everything, and don't just keep adding ideas until you get something that works historically, this is called back-fitting and is what the scam artists use to draw people into their scams, you may have 20 different ideas and only come up with 2 systems, but those 2 systems will make you money


Now what has been posted in the other thread is a system I personally use, this is not my creation it is different parts of different ideas that came together as one complete system and it's based on sound reasoning, so let's look at that reasoning


Anybody betting on horses should be aware that only 30% of favourites win their races, what people tend to forget is a favourite could be any price from 1/10 in a small field race to 10/1 in the bigger handicap races, backing those odds on runners means you could never profit from backing all favourites, but the other statistic most people are not aware of is “60% of odds on runners win their races, so that now means you can't even profit if you leave out the odds on runners as they make up a huge amount of your winning bets, so let's look at this a different way, with the introduction of betting exchanges we now have an option to lay a horse (bet against it winning) and looking at the above this way we have 70% of favourites losing so surely we can now lay the favourites? NOPE! Because when you lay the horse to lose you will have a liability on each bet depending on the price you lay at, and a known profit of 1 point per winning bet (less commission) so if we lay at a price of 4/1 (5.0 decimal) for £10 and the horse wins we will pay out £40, if it loses we will receive £10 less the exchange commission of 5% meaning we win £9.50, now we know that 30% of favourites win! And we also know that 40% of those winners are bigger prices than odds on, and that puts us back in a losing position


So looking at the information above you would have to say there is no way of backing or laying favourites for profit! But there is (and you've seen it)


In the above example we have no chance of turning a profit backing favourites, this is true no matter what we try, but we have a better chance if we can find a way of laying certain favourites where the price favours us, so we take what we know and look at the information like this, we do not want to be laying all odds on favourites because they have a high win percentage! And we do not want to be laying all odds against favourites as we have a high liability on these runners! What we want to do is lay favourites based on prices and win odds that favour us, but can we do that? Yes we can you've seen it


When we look at the figures for horses priced at 1.5 (1/2) up to 2.0 (evens) we get an interesting picture (see image below) these runners have a win strike-rate of 33.5% and that is back to where we started with our research on favourites (30% of favourites win their races) but now we have a lot less runners and more favourable prices for laying, if we lay a horse at 2.0 (even money) for £10 and it wins we will lose £10, if it loses we will win £9.50, but not every runner we lay is going to be at 2.0, let's lay a runner at 1.5 (1/2) for £10 if it wins we will pay out £5 but if it loses we will receive £9.50, the price is in our favour as we can lay at a price that wont lose our whole stake every time (and you've seen it in the other thread)


And it will all be explained in the other thread very soon


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4 weeks ago  ::  24 May 18 04:00 PM #37
grumpy (got me vajazzle back)
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do you also take into account the number of runners or is it based purley on odds of 1.5 to 2.0? do you set a stop loss of so many losing or do you double up regardless? and finally would the race selection below be suitable for this system?

a pair of melons beats anything
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4 weeks ago  ::  25 May 18 07:22 AM #38
wiggy
Posts: 10,144
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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do you also take into account the number of runners or is it based purley on odds of 1.5 to 2.0?

This is purely odds based, but it's the odds of 3 horses that need to be considered to provide our edge



do you set a stop loss of so many losing or do you double up regardless?



This system uses the standard fibonacci staking plan on page 1 of this thread (the top one) the longest losing run would be 9 before we have to restart and accept our losses, we are not doubling up after a loss we are just covering some of the losses, this is bank protection not loss recovery, it is possible to have a winning bet but a losing sequence, at any point in the sequence where we have a winner we return to step 1



My longest losing sequences in the 16 months I have used this is 7 losses x 1, 6 losses x 1 and 5 losses x 4, these are all losing sequences! but the winning bet on the next runner recovered a lot of the losses, and at no time in those 16 months has my bank been in trouble of busting



and finally would the race selection below be suitable for this system?



Yes that race would qualify by the selection rules (which I obviously wont give out here) it was also a winning bet as the favourite lost




I haven't had time to finish the post for the other thread where the results were logged, but I'll get it done over the weekend, you seem to be interested in this Stu so I'll let you into a little something! I have this fully automated, I turn it on in the morning click a few buttons and go to work, the software I use places the bets for me as long as the trigger rules are met and the software has internet access



There is of course an initial outlay as you need a betting bank and a subscription to the software (betting bot) I use 120 points but you could start at 80 and build to 120, so that's a betting bank of £160 and the software costs £14 for a month, but there are other options as well 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and I would suggest you use your initial profits to subscribe for 1 year as this costs £74




If you can afford that I would happily set you up with the system and all of the settings you need to make it work







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2 days ago  ::  17 Jun 18 11:40 AM #39
wiggy
Posts: 10,144
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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I've been away for a couple of weeks so haven't had time to update this


Today I'm going to show you an excel sheet I use to score certain information, this is just a very basic model but will give an idea of what's possible, all will be explained later




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