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7 months ago  ::  26 Mar 18 12:03 AM #1
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
Rank: Royal Flush
Well there's nowhere else to put this as it will cover different sports, but it will mainly cover horses and football

I'm just going to outline some details of what this thread is about today

So to start off I had better explain who I am and why I am doing this, I am a dissillusioned ex poker player who has spent 10 years working on different systems and strategies for sports betting, for the last 3 years I have made a second income from sports betting 2 of them at minimum wage and a real income last year, that's who I am, and why I am doing this is because I want to give some value information to active members

I want to make one thing clear from the start, the advice I give will be designed to build banks and compound winnings, it will be strategies and systems to make money long term, but I will throw in some ideas for the win big enthusiasts with a couple of lucky 15 horseracing and football bets, but these will only be for active members

So lets start with how I work, I have a portfolio of systems and strategies that cover a range of sports throughout the year, and I work to a set target a day from a reasonable starting bank, You should only bet with money you can afford to lose, and you should always divide that money into betting points, so for instance You have £100 and intend to place £2 bets, so you have 50 betting points, we do this for stake reasons only, I'll give you some pointers later for working out how many points any systems bank needs, but you should really have a seperate bank for each strategy

My target is quite simple, I have a set amount to win in a day from the bets I place, and I have a rigid stop at a loss for the day target, so to explain that properly lets' say my target win for the day is £100, I set my loss target at £60-£65, if I hit that I am done no matter how many potential bets I have left, if I profit by less than £100 I am also done once my set bets for the day have been placed, I only ever place bets I have researched or meet my strict filters, I never bet just because I haven't reached my target for the day

I just want to explain active members from my point of view, I will be giving away some strategies from time to time, this will be done by PM with the following criteria, to quallify for the free strategies you will need to either be known to me, or will have to have contributed real discussion to this thread, if you do not meet the criteria you will not recieve the information, my decision is final, I believe what I have to offer has value, if you want it be preparef to offer value back to this forum

I'll be back tomorrow with some no'no's from the world of betting
I'm too old to die young
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7 months ago  ::  26 Mar 18 12:56 PM #2
john (DENick}
Posts: 97
Date Joined: Dec 13, 2013
Rank: Straight Flush
great post! this is more like it an interesting topic and no moaning lol. i have never really done any sports betting until recently when 888 introduced the free sweepstakes(predicting the outcome of two football matches) any monies won here must be turned over on further bets and i have been suprisingly succesful. i have employed one simple startegy which simply involves searching for a game in 'live' betting where the home team is one goal down at 70 mins and then betting the draw.Wiggy i am i just being lucky? how would i find the statistics to know either way?  as i tend to do this late at night its mostly on south american teams does that make any difference?    very interested to hear about your research.
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7 months ago  ::  26 Mar 18 09:41 PM #3
slim
Posts: 3,651
Date Joined: Jan 23, 2009
Rank: Royal Flush
Will be good to follow this thread, i mainly just bet on football and golf now. I go to the races prob 1 or 2 times a year as always found it to be a good day out and would always have a little bet through out the day.
Anyhow good luck and hopefully see you on the tables at some stage as well.
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7 months ago  ::  27 Mar 18 06:59 AM #4
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
Rank: Royal Flush

26 Mar 18 06:56 AM , john (DENick} wrote:

great post! this is more like it an interesting topic and no moaning lol. i have never really done any sports betting until recently when 888 introduced the free sweepstakes(predicting the outcome of two football matches) any monies won here must be turned over on further bets and i have been suprisingly succesful. i have employed one simple startegy which simply involves searching for a game in 'live' betting where the home team is one goal down at 70 mins and then betting the draw.Wiggy i am i just being lucky? how would i find the statistics to know either way?  as i tend to do this late at night its mostly on south american teams does that make any difference?    very interested to hear about your research.




Wiggy i am i just being lucky? how would i find the statistics to know either way?

It may be luck, but there's nothing wrong with a bit of luck, some of the systems I use started out as a whole different idea, and making mistakes learning the system changed the approach I took as it seemed to work better

One of the best free resources for football statistics is soccerstats.com it covers leagues worldwide, if you need some help with the site give me a shout anytime and I'll try to help, you should also keep a record of your bets, the prices you achieve and your win/lose statistics, this will show you if you have a viable strategy moving forwards, but I'll be covering that shortly so keep an eye on this thread

But your strategy of betting on late goals is solid, statistically most goals are scored between the 75th and 90th minute



I'm too old to die young
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7 months ago  ::  27 Mar 18 09:05 PM #5
grumpy (got me vajazzle back)
Posts: 2,266
Date Joined: Jan 23, 2007
Status: sit and go whore
Rank: Royal Flush
always good to read a thread from wiggy. i shall be following this thread. i don't play poker as much as i used to,life is getting in the way at the moment and i withdrew 3/4 of my roll last year when the dollar dropped to $1.25 to the pound, hopefully i will be putting it back in when it reaches $1.55 but i'm thinking another 12 months.
anyway i only play regular every other week and only for an hour or 2 at a time. slim has a sit and go grind going and i am slowly grinding away at that but i have enough left in my bankroll to comfortably play $3 sit and gos and also this.

a pair of melons beats anything
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7 months ago  ::  28 Mar 18 12:07 AM #6
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
Rank: Royal Flush

Right we're going to look at some bets that bookmakers want you to place, but you should really steer well clear of


This and the follow up post on staking systems will lead to the first strategy give away


Online and high street bookies have offers all the time, it could be anything from correct scores on football, money back on horseracing, enhanced prices or their real favourite, "A FREE bet if your accumulator misses by one leg" these are the bets bookmakers want you to place, these are their real moneymakers and they spend a fortune advertising them


Just knowing that should set the alarm bells ringing, bookmaking is a buisness, when you join that bookmaker you are a customer NOT a client, the aim of any buisness is to profit from it's customers and bookmakers are very good at this, they actually restrict or close accounts of people who make regular winning bets because they will not be profitable for them in the long term, and I have e-mails stating exactly that from a couple of them


Let's start with accumulators, on the surface they look a fantastic bet because you can make a lot of money very quickly, some bookies even offer bonuses on the amount of winning bets in your accumulator, but the truth is the true odds of hitting that string of winners are not the same as the odds you will recieve, and the more legs you add the harder it gets, it's why they can offer bonuses when you do win, don't get me wrong there's nothing wrong with a fun accumulator now and then, but it's not going to make you money long term, I personally use lucky 15's on horseracing and football, the odds aren't so big but I get a return as long as I get 1 winner, if I place an accumulator I could have 6 winning bets and 1 loser and I get NOTHING, just think about that! 6 winners no return


So what about price boosts? Think about this! a lot of sites now offer price boosts on certain races, now these bookmakers have hundreds of people behind the scenes pricing up events and gathering information on the days runners, do you really believe that online bookies are going to boost prices on runners they think are going to win? the bookies job is to take as much as possible on horses they think they can get beaten, and what better way than to offer better odds so the casual gambler thinks they are getting a deal?

I make good money scanning these bookies and laying the horse to lose on the exchanges, after all they have hundres of people gathering information I could never get, You wont win every time because you can never win every time, but with just a bit of form study you can select the races where the favourite isn't as strong as the market suggests and make steady profits


And it much the same with the correct score markets you see in bookies windows, again they have hundreds of analysts working in the background, and the correct score they advertise is always the historicaly least likely result, you can check it out on stats sites


Now reading the above would seem to suggesst it's just not worth betting, but there are markets the bookies are slow to update, there are markets that don't get a lot of attention from bookies because they are busy updating prices in major leagues and popular markets, and there are ways of covering outcomes that give you 2 chances to break even and 1 chance to make a decent profit, all to a 1 point split stake, if you lose you lose a point, if you hit one of two results you break even, but if you hit the right result you make 4 or 5 points profit, and that's from a market all bookies offer, or can be used on the exchanges, of course you will have losing bets and streaks of break even bets, but that's going to happen! If anybody ever tells you they win all of their bets “run away”


The next post will cover a staking plan I use a lot, I'll give full details of the plan and what the purpose of it is

I'm too old to die young
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7 months ago  ::  28 Mar 18 09:54 PM #7
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
Rank: Royal Flush

Staking plans!


Some people like them, some people hate them! But the simple truth is if you have the right system you can make them work for you, you'll see a lot of review sites claiming a good system makes profit at level stakes, that's true enough but hard to achieve sometimes, but a good staking plan can turn a break even system into a profitable system


The two tables below show a fibonacci sequence (top) and an extended fibonacci sequence (below) these are not stake recovery systems! They are bank protection systems! It's possible to have a winning bet but still be losing overall but they protect banks and you profit from winning sequences, the top system is more aggressive and should really only be used with either a high strike rate, or a low liability system, the bottom system is a bit more relaxed and is useful with laying systems or those bets with 2-3 outcomes, especially if you are splitting betting points (all will be explained in time


Fibonacci


PTS


1


1


2


3


5


8


13


21


34


£2.00


£2.00


£2.00


£4.00


£6.00


£10.00


£16.00


£26.00


£42.00


£68.00


£5.00


£5.00


£5.00


£10.00


£15.00


£25.00


£40.00


£65.00


£105.00


£170.00



Extended Fibonacci


PTS


1


1.5


2


2.5


3


4


5


£2.00


£2.00


£3.00


£4.00


£5.00


£6.00


£8.00


£10.00


£5.00


£5.00


£7.50


£10.00


£12.50


£15.00


£20.00


£25.00


E F Continued


6.5


8


10.5


13


17


21


27.5


34


£13.00


£16.00


£21.00


£26.00


£34.00


£42.00


£55.00


£68.00


£32.50


£40.00


£52.50


£65.00


£85.00


£105.00


£137.50


£170.00


There are many ways to use the above, the most common being to move one step forwards if you have a losing bet, and return to the beginning of the sequence after a winning bet, but you could also move forward one step after a losing bet, and then move back 2 or 3 steps after a winning bet


It really depends on the system you use, how long an average losing streak lasts, and your risk acceptance (I tend to play it safe when building banks)


I'll cover more on staking and compounding later, but I wanted to get this one done as the first give away system will be using these staking plans and should be available of Friday at some point, I have to make sure it's easy to understand

I'm too old to die young
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7 months ago  ::  30 Mar 18 01:01 PM #8
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
Rank: Royal Flush
Ok today is the day of the first give away

This is a new twist on the reverse forecast and is available as a pdf file

please request the file by PM only, and give me your e-mail address in the PM, this will only be used to send you the file and will be deleted once completed

DO NOT put your e-mail address in this thread for your own safety

I'll be back later with a staking plan for a casino game which will be posted for all to see
I'm too old to die young
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7 months ago  ::  30 Mar 18 10:50 PM #9
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
Rank: Royal Flush
This is some staking advice for Blackjack, my favourite casino game, I hope it will give some insight to my way of thinking about things

I have played the game for years, I have read strategies and staking advice and came to the conclusion some people are idiots! And some of this advice I paid for which makes me an idiot, I actually paid for advice that suggested that as it was more likely to win 2 hands in a row I should indrease my stakes for hand 2, nothing wrong with that logic so far, then decrease my stakes for the next hands until I hit a losing hand at which point I should revert to my original stake and start again, again I can see the logic there as we are protecting winnings

I was quite happy with the advice I was reading, right up until the point I saw the staking plan, now I don't remember the entire staking plan but I remember bet 2 and 3 for a reason! it went something like this

£2, £40, £4, £7, £12, £12, £22

Now I'm sure you can see the flaw in this plan, x20 stake on bet 2? WTH! when we start out if we win bet 1 and lose bet 2 we are £38 down, do that twice and it's a long way back, 3 times and it's game over, and I have had some very cold decks at the start of a Blackjack session

Another promised me great riches using a staking plan of £3, £5, £9, £16, £28, £50, £90, £170, £240, very nice but do you know how rare a 9 hand winning streak is, and look at the staking! on bet 3 you bet more than you have won, I'm sure some people put a lot of thought into their ideas or scams (whatever you want to call them) and I used the information I read to come up with my staking plan

We'll start with the actual game play first, you should be using the perfect Blackjack startegy, this will tell you what to do with any hand dealt against the dealers open card and can be found online (search perfect Blackjavk strategy) It really doesn't take long to learn and you can have it open during game play for reference

The staking advice is quite simple, what we are looking for is streaks of 3 winning hands, but we have an amount of bank protection when we only win 1 or 2

Chose your starting stake (because of the advice I will give later we will set this at £5) so bet 1 is your starting stake £5 and we now double this to give us stake 3 stake 2 is halfway between both stakes, if we lose bet 1 we stay on the same stake, if we win we move forwards  1 step, if we lose bet 2 we return to our original stake, if we win we move to stakr 3, after 3 winning hands we return to stake 1

So from a £5 starting stake we have, bet 1 = £5, bet 2 = £7.50 and bet 3 = £10

Now let's look at the logic behind this staking, when we win bet 1 we win £5, our stake for bet 2 is £7.50, so if we lose bet 2 we have lost £2.50, but if bet 2 wins we have won £12.50, bet 3 is now FREE and guarantees us a profit of at least £2.50 and when we have a 3 bet winning run we win £22.50, so knowing that 2 winning hands is most common (and yes research and hundreds of thousands of hands show this to be true) we have bank protection and the possibillity of moving forwards quickly on hot decks

Longer winning streaks happen so you could actually increase stakes for bet 4 and 5 if you want, but I wouldn't go any further than that, I would suggest increasing stake 4 and 5 by your starting stake, so bet 4 is £15 and bet 5 is £20, but I would only consider this if I am in a position of having incresed my starting bank by 50%

My advice would be to use this where you play Blackjack, but always play live where possible, so any bricks and mortar casino, or any online site with a live casino (hence the £5 starting stake) you can use it on online casino sites but it is very hit and miss against their RNG, for a starting bank I would suggest 10 x your maximum stake with a stop limit, so for the plan above your bank would be £100 and I would stop if I went down to £45 as this takes more than 2 consecutive 3 hand winning runs to recover
I'm too old to die young
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7 months ago  ::  01 Apr 18 02:55 PM #10
slim
Posts: 3,651
Date Joined: Jan 23, 2009
Rank: Royal Flush
Black Jack is 1 game i have never realy tried but i think i will have a little read up on it. The only casino game that i play when 888 set up there challenges is the roulete and have always stuck by x-rays formula and i have found that a good steady way. 
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