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Switch to Forum Live View THE GRAND NATIONAL (2018)...Can we find the WINNER?
3 months ago  ::  13 Apr 18 08:23 PM #1
Paul C
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Date Joined: Jul 30, 2015
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This is a FAMILY FAVOURITE Horse Race throughout the UK & Worldwide for that matter.

THE GRAND NATIONAL Horse Race is GREAT FUN & most MAKE A DAY OF IT!
Our family certainly does.

So, who will WIN it this year? (2018)

I think many of us know by now that the winner is usually (but not always) AGED 8 or 9.
And if it's weighted under 11 Stone then your also on the right track (again, there are exceptions)

So grab a horse in the NATIONAL with those 2 together & your half way there, then we need to  look for one with GOOD FORM...it doesn't have to be brilliant form but needs to be good & consistant form & hopefully one that knows HOW TO WIN? 
The Winner of the National usually has at least one win in it's most recent form guide (1)

The jockey & trainer can also be factors but i think the above 3 choices are more important.

The GROUND (going) would normally be OK for most horses but for some years when the ground is SOFT it could end up being a MUD bath & will give those horses that like this footing an ADVANTAGE...very few of the 40 make it around in such conditions.

THIS seems to be the case this year? as it's already had rain at AINTREE & i understand more is forecast...if SOFT ground you may want to pick at least 1 Horse in your picks that LIKES such things as it's likely only around 1/4 of them make it around & if you've picked a MUD HORSE you'll have some form of chance.

OK.

As a family we normally choose 1/4 of the field of 40...so 10 horses picked.

MANY HORSES through this critera have lines drawn through them but OTHERS are more tricky to rule out or choose.

It is a PROVEN FACT...that the FAVOURITES & many of those CLOSE to them...DO NOT WIN THIS RACE.
Again there are always exceptions but HISTORY shows this to be True.

In fact the winning odds of a NATIONAL HORSE averages out at around 20-1 (you'll see many 14-1, 18-1, 25-1 & 33-1 winners down the years) so if you have all the above stats in hand & add a horse within this range of 14-1 to 33-1 then there is a GREAT CHANCE you'll have picked the winner.

So if ANIBALE FLY as many are saying goes off FAVOURITE i would normally say stay clear & swerve it, although it should be said i think it'll be there or thereabouts along with another close favourite TOTAL RECALL (being a fan of that film & Schwarnegger they'll be many on this one, yes even me even though it goes against my rules)

Personally i'd give a MISS to BLACKLION & TIGER ROLL but feel free to come back here & give me hell if they do win?

I'll give you THE 10 GRAND NATIONAL HORSES we've picked as a family this using this criteria & yes a few go slightly against this critera it's true.

Hopefully we've got the winner covered here....

No 6 TOTAL RECALL..super form, aged 9, trained by Mullins but 11 stone 5lbs!!! what the hey i LOVE the NAME & the FILM Smile

No 16 CHASE THE SPUD...Wow! just checked this again!!! it's now 25-1 so it's in that range! when we bet it ANTI POST it was 66-1 got this one placed too...good form, 10-12 but is 10!!!
Here's the thing...it LOVES the MUD.

No 17 WARRIORS TALE...Ticks ALL the BOXES...Aged 9, 10-12, super form & currently 33-1.

No 18 SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT...heard about this ages ago & got on early & thankfully it runs & hopefully should give me a good run for my money?
It is 10 years old though (but this is not unheard of) 10-12, SUPER FORM & 16-1.

No 22 UCELLO CONTI...i was on this year last but it was a little unlucky so will give it another go especially as jockey Daryl JACOBS is on fire currently at AINTREE.
Again aged 10 but 10-10, decent form (no wins recently though) has a chance, 20-1.

No 26 I JUST KNOW...Good STAMINA horse (will be needed tomorrow) 
Has EVERYTHING IN PLACE to win a NATIONAL, Aged 8, 10-08, Good form with a recent win & at odds that usually wins 20-1.

No 27 VIRGILIO...huge outsider but don't let that put you off.
It has a recent win, Aged 9, 10-08 & it should stay...66-1 an outsider is always fun & this is ours!

No 34 CAPTAIN REDBEARD...another that has EVERYTHING NEEDED to win a NATIONAL.
Age 9, 10-07, super jockey, probably the BEST FORM of ALL the horses! 20-1 & here it is...
IT LOVES the MUD...Every Chance!

No 37 MILANSBAR...the women jockey's at CHELTENHAM were OUTSTANDING, numerous winners & it's ONLY a matter of time before one wins this BIG ONE.
There are 3 women jockey's in the race this year but BRYONY FROST who partners MILANSBAR is our pick.
Horse is AGED 11...arghh?? not many win it at this age, weight is good though 10-06 (in the MUD this will help late on after 4 miles) GOOD FORM, 25-1 falls right in the middle part of the usually odds winner.

No 20 THE DUTCHMAN...another MUD horse...we are covering ourselves this time out! in MUD HORSES that's 3 of the 10 Laughing
Harry Cobden is a good jockey, Tizzard a good trainer, Horse is AGED 8, weight 10-11,  form is good 2nd's & a WIN, it likes the MUD & is 20-1...it's all there for a horse that can win such a race.

So that's OUR 10 of the 40 horses covered.

Never easy to pick a NATIONAL winning Horse but we've got a pretty good stike rate, especially as we have 25% of them covered & have hopefully eliminated 25% who shouldn't really have much of a chance & a number of the BIG SHOTS (favourites & those close to them 2nd, 3rd & 4th in the betting as they usually don't win) & that HOPEFULLY leaves one of these that will win it but if not...hey it's a FUN DAY & HORSE RACE.

BEST of LUCK to ya all.

A horse that is...
AGED 8 or 9 with WEIGHT under 11 stone, has good consistant form (with usually 1 win of late) and of odds between 14-1 & 33-1 usually wins it (yup you get the odd FAVOURITE or 2nd favourite winning & even some 50-1 even 100-1 winners but they are rarities)
Stick with this critera & perhaps WHY NOT...pick the one that has ALL THESE & you LIKE THE NAME & who knows?
Perhaps you'll have yourself a WINNER & some good WINNINGS.

MY TOP 3 for what it's worth?

1) I JUST KNOW.
2) WARRIORS TALE...little being said of this (maybe i've missed something?)
3) CAPTAIN REDBEARD
but i do think the other 7 have a chance...CHASE THE SPUD (LOVE the name) has come in from 66-1 to 25-1 probably due to the MUD.

Now watching the ITV4 virtual GRAND NATIONAL that tries to find the winner of this years race using calulations & computer power.
If you missed it tonight...check it out in the UK on ITV4 (channel 24) at 11am in the morning although i'll stick with our 10 thanks Wink

Hope your picks at least give you a decent race for your money...it's awful when they FALL at the 1st or 2nd (happened to us plenty of times over the years!)

GOOD LUCK to YOU ALL.
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3 months ago  ::  13 Apr 18 09:06 PM #2
Paul C
Posts: 471
Date Joined: Jul 30, 2015
Status: I would like to VIST the planet 'PLUTO' :)
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Interesting.

Just watched the virtual reality National Horse Race & according to it....





SPOILERS




SPOILERS




SPOILERS




SPOILERS




Last chance not to LOOK if you've recorded it OR will watch the re-run tomorrow morning...




OK




Acording to this computer simulation...NONE of my choices won.

1st went to TIGER ROLL, personally i think it has too many errors in it? 
But perhaps it'll get the trip & get over the fences with no trouble..be funny if it did win.

2nd was very interesting & EXPLAINS why just before transmission perhaps it LEAKED OUT that CHASE THE SPUD ended up 2nd in this virtual race.
NO WONDER it went from 66-1 to 50-1 & then along with news it may rain? leaped up to 25-1 in the current betting.

3rd was also good news as TOTAL RECALL just fails but places well.

Of course they can get close when they feed all this information into a computer thesedays but it does NOT account for jockey mistakes & choices taken, horses getting in the way, the weather which may be different...so if your horse is not TIGER ROLL don't PANIC!

NONE of my TOP 3 came close according to this but 2 of the top 3 were part of the 10 choosen but sadly to win the BIG MONEY you need to get on the winner & like i said even covering 25% of the field doesn't mean you'll get it!

FUN Simulation but i think it will be wrong.

BEST NAMED HORSE? has to be 'CHASE THE SPUD' now if that goes 1 better than this than we'll be quids in Smile
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3 months ago  ::  14 Apr 18 07:07 PM #3
Paul C
Posts: 471
Date Joined: Jul 30, 2015
Status: I would like to VIST the planet 'PLUTO' :)
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And NEXT YEAR we shall be employing the old blindfold & needle effect Laughing

The one year i decide to post my thoughts & picks for this years race is when we achieve one of the WORST performances we've ever had in the GRAND NATIONAL horse race Cry

I guess i'll have to take a closer look at that VIRTUAL REALITY computer programme next year as AMAZINGLY 'Tiger Roll' as they predicted WON.

Although 2nd & 3rd were nowhere to be seen.

Unusual to see a short priced (almost favourite) winning it & one that (i think?) was over the 11 stone weight.

We shall still stick with this critea next year...HISTORY proves it....Just not this year.

If you were on TIGER ROLL congratulations, i just thought it was too small a horse over these (albeit smaller) fences & it would struggle & make a mistake or two!
How wrong can you get!

Same Time Next Year then Wink
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3 months ago  ::  16 Apr 18 07:41 AM #4
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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A nice write up of the grand national and some stats and ideas Paul, I'll add some thinking to the list!

But first
"NONE of my TOP 3 came close according to this but 2 of the top 3 were part of the 10 choosen but sadly to win the BIG MONEY you need to get on the winner "

Obviously casual punters are going to be looking for the BIG win, but sports betting is like poker, it's all about the long term gains! you can't win every bet no matter what the scammers tell you, you are better off having 3-5 live chances with sound reasoning for selection, this gives you chance of profit and can catch the winner

The stats as posted are a good way of profiling the winner of the National! after all they are the stats for a reason, but having a few of your own ideas improves your profit potential without hitting the winner, and profit is the name of the game, so here's some of mine and the selections they led to

Horses at the top of the market (1-5th favourites) have a good place record in this race and are worth having a look at, if they have the stamina, jumping technique and abillity to handle more than one type of going conditions then they are almost bankers for profit (Anibale Fly)

Likewise horses at the bottom end of the weights with the same profile are worth looking at (Bless The Wings)

The National is race 6 on the card, the ground isn't going to get any better due to the horses churning it up in the previous 5 races, but it could get more testing, therefore looking for something with proven abillity, and capable of handling conditions tougher than those declared works well (Shantou Flyer)

Those were my 3 selections for these reasons (as posted to twitter 08/04/2018)
Anibale Fly 16/1, more than capable in a race of this type, good stamina and jumping technique, should be on the scene at the bussiness end of the race, weight may be an issue
Shantou Flyer 25/1, will handle the conditions and worse, proven stayer but lacks a bit in the jumping department, a clear(ish) round would see it place
Bless The Wings 50/1, This one jumps well, handles a multitude of conditions and is carrying a featherweight, will stay all day so the distance isn't an issue and if still going over the last should pick off some tired runners coming home, probablly can't win but at 50/1 it just needs to place

I ignored Tiger Roll because of jumping issues, but if you could forgive that then it's cheltenham form said it was a class act, I just thought Anibale Fly was the better jumper

So all in all a small profit banked, it would have been better if my bookie hadn't restricted my 50/1 bet, oh well another bookie closure coming up I suppose


I'm too old to die young
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