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Switch to Forum Live View Laying the favourite
5 months ago  ::  12 May 18 08:24 AM #1
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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This will all be explained in the sports betting thread later, but for now what you need to know is where the image shows W in green the bet was won and the horse named lost, there is also a 3 day gap in the betting which was due to no internet connection

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5 months ago  ::  12 May 18 08:28 AM #2
wiggy
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Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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Not the clearest picture, but if you double click on it you should go to the gallery where you can view it full sized
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5 months ago  ::  13 May 18 09:23 AM #3
wiggy
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5 months ago  ::  14 May 18 06:47 AM #4
wiggy
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5 months ago  ::  15 May 18 07:28 AM #5
wiggy
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5 months ago  ::  17 May 18 07:29 AM #6
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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I'm finding it a bit time consuming having to update threads and results dailly while also doing everything else I do, so the above will be the last post here for a while, there is plenty there for me to explain what's going on over a 7 day betting period

That explanation will come next in the sports betting thread so keep an eye out for it
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4 months ago  ::  29 May 18 07:10 AM #7
wiggy
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Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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Laying the odds on favourites


As pointed out in the sports betting thread, odds on favourites win 60% of their races, but when you take the time to research those odds on runners an interesting statistic appears, horses priced between 1/1 (even money) and 1/2 (odds on) only win around 33% of the time, this leaves us with an opportunity to make profits from laying these runners


The images above show exactly that over an eight day betting sequence, it also shows the fibonacci staking sequence in operation, this is not loss recovery it is just bank protection, so let's have a look at some figures, but remember this is just a small sample


There are 8 betting days shown, and 24 bets for an average of 3 bets a day, this is about right as there will be more bets on busy weekends, of those 24 bets 16 won (66.6%) and 8 lost (33.3%) which for such a small sample is amazing as it's exactly the percentage we would expect long term, of course not all weeks or months will go this way


The fibonacci staking sequence in use is to move forwards 1 step after a loss and return to step 1 after a win, the initial stake is £3 and we start with 120 points or £360, you can start with 80 points but you must only increase stakes when you reach the next 120 point level, so if you were to start with 80 points and £2 bets you would start with £160, you would only increase to £3 bets when you have a bank of £360, this is for bank protection purposes during losing runs (and you WILL have them), so for this example I started with £3 bets and a bank of £360, we start with 2 winners and our stakes stay the same, we then have a loss and move forwards 1 step


I think I should explain here that although the actual staking plan says step 2 is to bet 1 point again! My strike rate for this system is high and I don't feel the need for that extra layer of protection, I therefore move to 2 point bets for step 2, this also allows me to increase step 9 to 55 points if I ever get that far up the steps! (I haven't yet but you never know)


So our 4th bet now becomes 2 points £6, which wins, and again I need to give an explanation, although you will see this bet has won! the next bet is also for £6 when it should have reverted to step 1 for £3, this happened because I was clearing pop-ups from my screen an managed to place a bet on a horse I couldn't cancel in time, it lost and because the bet was placed through the software the program logged the loss and went to step 2 (not an issue you would encounter usually) our next bet lost and we moved to step 3! 3 points £9, this bet also lost which puts the bank into a negative figure of -£3.99 and we move to step 4 £15


The winning bet at step 4 returns £14.25 (5% commission taken off) our previous losing bets were for £15 (£6 + £9) but our losses for these bets total -£12.42 due to the prices we layed at being in our favour, so if you add the £2.58 we didn't lose to the £14.25 we won our return to outlay becomes, outlay £30, returns £31.83 (our £15 for step 4 is returned) and we have protected our previous profits


for our next bet we return to step 1 of the staking plan and bet £3


More figures to follow

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4 months ago  ::  01 Jun 18 07:08 AM #8
wiggy
Posts: 10,145
Date Joined: Jun 15, 2007
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Now let's have a look at the price column


All prices are logged as decimal prices as this is a laying system on the exchanges, a decimal price shows your return including your stake, a fractional price shows your return to your stake, so a fractional price of 4/1 returns 4 x your stake plus your stake, a decimal price of 4/1 will appear as 5.00, so £10 at 4/1 will return £40 + your £10 stake = £50, £10 at 5.00 will return £50 as your stake is included in the price, so to work out your fractional price from a decimal price just remove 1.00 from the price, it is important to know this when laying on the exchanges


Laying a horse to lose makes you the bookmaker! You offer a bet which somebody may take and this leaves you with a liability should the horse win, so for instance you lay £10 on the favourite at 4.00 which somebody matches, if the horse loses you win your opponents £10, if the horse wins you will pay your opponent £30, so your liability is £30 at 4.00, as the decimal price shows the return for the bet you take 1.00 off of the price when laying because that is your opponents stake, you are the bookmaker so your liability is the decimal price -1.00 I'm sure most people reading this already know this but it doesn't hurt to make sure


So our first lay was for £3 at 2.00, if this bet loses we will lose £1 of every £1 we bet, 2.00 – 1.00 = 1.00, our second bet was placed at a decimal price of 1.85 and if this bet loses we now lose £0.85 of every £1 we bet, so our liability for this bet becomes £3 x £0.85 = £2.55, and this is where we gain our edge as we do not lose our entire stake on every losing bet! This can be seen at the bottom of the price column, where the average price of each lay bet works out to 1.88, so for each losing bet we have an average loss of £0.88 for every £1 bet


Of course by betting on the exchange our bets are subject to commission, therefore when we win we don't actually win £1 for every £1 bet, the starting rate for commission is 5% meaning we win £0.95 of every £1 bet (we only pay commission on our winning bets) it is possible to cover this by changing the highest price we lay at from 2.0 to 1.95, but I prefer to take the long term view of the average figure as we can see we are well covered at 1.88, also changing the high lay price to 1.95 would cut down the amount of bets we place, and as this is a bank building process we are better off having a high turn-over

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